8 September 2020

Market participants are unexpectedly quiet. There is lesser rousing and bullish remarks from permabulls; traders are cautiously optimistic. And for good reasons. After a week saturated with DeFi painting a defiant and glorious picture of Ethereum, attention is back to the king of crypto and whether it will sneeze and give the whole market a cold.

Bitcoin is still the dominant crypto and the base currency in most CEXes. Say what you may—the rise of DEXes and the innovation around liquidity pools, centralized exchanges are more intuitive to use, and support direct fiat deposit and withdrawal. Still, there is much to be retrieved from BTC performance at spot rates.

From the onset, it is clear that sellers may have the upper hand over bulls. After weeks of incessant pumping causing over-excitement, forcing outrageous (unrealistic) projections from the unexpected.

Following the Indicators

From the daily chart, there is clear support at or around this level. In the last three days, not only are prices consolidating at a tight $700 range, but there is a degree of undervaluation after Sep 4 and Sep 6 candlesticks closed below the lower BB. Accompanying this are long lower wicks hinting of demand in lower time frames.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily Chart for Sep 8

A level deeper, an analysis of Binance’s order books reveal a “buy wall”, which is simply a stack of buy orders between $10,000 and $10,200. Interestingly, order sizes on the buy sides are higher than on the sell side where resistance is between $10,300 and $10,500.

Therefore, if prices recover from spot rates, bounce above $10,300, there is a chance of a strong rally back to $11,000, or at best $12,000. If indeed Bitcoin rallies from spot rates, odds of FOMO remain high. On the flip side, a drop to below $9,500 may spark a selloff frenzy which will be catastrophic to holders, and yes, DeFi yield farmers.

Polkadot, Cosmos, & Interoperability

Talking of yield farming and open finance innovation, the focus is back to alternate platforms. Proponents of Ethereum won’t budge and there is growing consensus that competing platforms like EOS, Tron, and Waves would help scale Ethereum at least before Eth2.

In the meantime, Polkadot and Cosmos are considered the future. These networks have solutions in various modes of interconnecting heterogeneous blockchains—an achievement that will lead to a more robust ecosystem.

Specifically, the involvement of Dr. Gavin Wood in Polkadot and the recent re-denomination of its coin, DOT, is drawing attraction. If Wood can do to DOT what he—and Vitalik, did to Ethereum, that would explain why DOT is now back in the top 10, seemingly out of nowhere. Nonetheless, come what may, DOT is still experimental and so is DeFi.

Two things can be true at the same time about Bitcoin; it is both a crypto superpower and has some enthusiasts who are entirely too bullish. The frenzy around DeFi is understandable as traders look for new exciting investments. Interoperable platforms may catch the tailwinds as investors look for something lucrative.

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Edmund McCormack
Tech industry veteran and blockchain technology investor. Simplifying cryptocurrency for almost a decade.

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